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  • #56
    Originally posted by Penny Pick View Post
    SHARK let's discuss on the fundamental issues with EXPO.

    1. ROE has came down to 8% from 40% (Efficiency in allocating capital, which is a CEO's #1 job) ?...........
    2. The major variance between profit and operating cash flow
    3. Negative free cash flow almost all the years ....
    SHARK though CCS is a good tool, it will not be effective for the business like EXPO and would be more effective for the business with major inventory turnover like TJL, Cargills, Ceylon cold stores etc..

    Receivable days are increased from around 60 days in 2010 to close to 110 days in 2018. This is one of the major concern together with listed points.
    Last edited by Penny Pick; 02-17-2019, 12:51 PM.

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    • #57
      Since the bottom line (net profit) similar to year 2010, let's consider investment case scenario and list out the positives. The price of Rs 4.40 per share considered to be undervalued based on PE, DCF,PB ratios and real candidate for the long term investment.

      1. Strong quarter drives YTD Performance

      2. Logistics Sector continues to fuel growth
      a) Air Freight - continues to consolidate
      b)Ocean Freight – In line with expectations

      3. Key contribution from Core Trade lane performance (major demands from US & Europe region)

      4. Europe business continues to drive Ocean growth

      5. EXPO has shed most of passive investment held till 2016 and more focus on capacity expansion specifically North American Trade Lane

      6. Strategic decision was made increase the expansion into USA and key markets in Asia (which started to reap benefits)

      7. Rupee depreciation resulting additional cash flow to the business and improving bottom line

      Comment


      • #58
        Without much noise, collection are going on in EXPO, MGT last one month and so.

        in SUMMARY (Last one month) :

        6.1 million shares of EXPO were changed in hand
        5.1 million shares of MGT were changed in hand
        Last edited by Penny Pick; 02-12-2019, 07:20 PM.

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        • #59
          EXPO,HAYLEYS Advantis and MGT and TJL should go along well.
          "The best values today are often found in the stocks that were once hot and have since gone cold"

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          • #60
            The company has declared a dividend one time in the month of January 2014. Are they going to declare a dividend in the month of February this year ?

            I will not be surprised if they declared a dividend of 0.3 per share in Feb.

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            • #61
              Another major concern was during 2012 that EXPO IPO price is over valued at 14 per share. All what we witnessing is, share price has now over reacted and fall to 4.4 per share. If some one zoom out & look at CAGR (in terms of revenue, GP,NP) the following is the results and expecting from now onward the share price to reach it's true value.

              In 2006, the revenue was Rs 11,783,000,000, Gross Profit was 2,309,000,000 and net profit was Rs 192,000,000

              in 2017, the revenue was Rs 77,532,886,917 Gross Profit was 13,726,295,373 and net profit was Rs 961,562,452

              Sales Growth (12-Year CAGR) 17.0%
              Gross Profit Growth (12-Year CAGR) 16.0%
              Net Profit Growth (12-Year CAGR) 11.5%
              This CAGR includes all the challenges EXPO has faced in the bottom line noting that when the NP established 1.5 billion (very much likely) , NET PROFIT CAGR would jump to 18%.

              I would recommend all the long term investor to have certain portion of EXPO in their portfolio and I am not promoting this share as I have discussed my concern and what can go wrong on this counter too.

              Note: I am collecting slowly last few days.

              Comment


              • #62
                Agree. with Trade War now beginning to ease with US-CHINA closing on new pact, world cargo handling get a boost and will be positive for EXPO. ASIY recommends buy and expect the share to notch 5+

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